Friday, November 2, 2012

Wages DECLINE In October

Wages DECLINE In OctoberThe media are scrutinizing the BLS's October jobs report, which showed more realistic numbers fudging than the ridiculous September report. But no one will talk about the elephant in the room: the 171K jobs created was accompanied by a decrease in wages. According to this jobs report, the private sector saw average weekly earnings decline by nearly $3.00 during the month of October. In other words, if more people are being hired, they're being hired for lower-level jobs. Indeed, I recently reported that the majority of jobs filled since the official "end" of the recession in 2009 have been low-page, part-time positions filled by seniors.

Wages DECLINE In October - chart

Thursday, November 1, 2012

GOP Presidents Increase Debt More Than Dems

GOP Presidents Increase Debt More Than DemsI enjoy exposing the truth whether it's embarrassing to liberals, conservatives, or libertarians. Most of the time, my research is damaging to liberal ideology. Every so often, however, I come across something that puts conservatives in their place. This is one of those times. As you can see from the following chart from the Economist, with the notable exception of Eisenhower, GOP presidents since WWII have increased the national debt more than Democrat presidents. What's more, "fiscal hawk" Reagan increased the debt more than any president before him. And, George W. Bush--WORKING WITH A GOP CONGRESS--managed to increase the debt more than all the previous presidents combined! (Lest we forget that No Child Left Behind, Medicare Part D, and the expansion of the EITC were GOP ideas.)


In addition to exposing the truth, I also enjoy holding peoples' feet to the fire. So, make the case, Republicans. Why exactly would Romney be different? When responding, don't blame your presidents' fiscal liberalism on Democrat congresses. The president drives budget priorities (Obamacare is named after the president, not Congress; Cold War spending was a Reagan--not congressional--initiative, etc.), and he has the power of the veto. And don't say "but Obama has increased the debt even more". That has nothing to do with the price of tea in China. Besides, there it is on the chart, clear as day: GOP presidents have averaged a greater addition to the national debt than Democrat presidents.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

ADP Slashes Jobs From Sept Report

ADP Slashes Jobs From Sept Report
The government's September jobs report was a crock. A sudden fall to 7.8% U-3 unemployment was statistically impossible. And today CNBC is reporting that revisions to the way ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count:
ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

The new private payroll count now is actually under Labor's September job creation household survey net total of 114,000, 104,000 of which came from the private sector.  
So one truth comes out. But the MSM media won't report this. They already got their "7.8% unemployment" headline. And, they continue to closely guard the hidden truth about the quality of jobs created during Obama's presidency: they've been part-time, low paying positions filled by seniors.

Facebook Shuts Down Navy SEALs Critical Of Obama

FB Shuts Down Navy SEALs Critical Of Obama
Facebook recently censored a Navy SEAL group that dared criticize Obama for his handling of the attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi. From breitbart.com:
Over the weekend, Facebook took down a message by the Special Operations Speaks PAC (SOS) which highlighted the fact that Obama denied backup to the forces being overrun in Benghazi.

The message was contained in a meme which demonstrated how Obama had relied on the SEALS when he was ready to let them get Osama bin Laden, and how he had turned around and denied them when they called for backup on Sept 11.

I spoke with Larry Ward, president of Political Media, Inc -- the media company that handles SOS postings and media production. Ward was the one who personally put the Navy SEAL meme up, and the one who received the warning from Facebook and an eventual 24 hour suspension from Facebook because Ward put the meme back up after Facebook told him to take it down. Here's what Ward told me:
We created and posted this meme on Saturday after news broke that Obama had known and denied SEALS the backup they requested.

Once the meme was up it garnered 30,000 shares, approx. 24,000 likes, and was read by hundreds of thousands of people -- all within 24 hrs. On Sunday, I went into the SOS Facebook page to post something else and found a warning from Facebook that we had violated Facebook's Statement of Rights and Responsibilities with our meme. So I copied the warning, put it on the meme as as caption, and re-posted the meme to the Facebook page.   
Along with the re-posted meme, Ward put a link to the Facebook "feedback comment" inbox so visitors to the SOS page could send a message to Facebook if they were as outraged over the meme being jerked down as he was. Ward said Facebook pulled the re-posted meme down within 7 or 8 hours and suspended the SOS account for 24 hours.

In other words, Facebook put the Navy SEALS in timeout in order to shield Obama. How low can you go?

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Debt And GDP: Near Perfect Inverse Correlation

Debt And GDP: Near Perfect Inverse Correlation
I wrote in one of my first posts on ECOMINOES that sovereign debt pulls down GDP after passing the 90% debt/GDP ratio. Today I found a wonderful chart on streettalklive.com that shows that, in the United States, the national debt and GDP are nearly perfectly inversely correlated. Periods of high national debt saw low economic growth. Periods of low national debt saw high economic growth. Take note, President Romney.
Debt And GDP: Near Perfect Inverse Correlation - chart

Attn Keynesians: Hurricanes Don't Create Wealth

Attn Keynesians: Hurricanes Don't Create WealthI couldn't have said it any better than my buddy Brad DeVos, executive director of the Bastiat Society:

Dear Seth:
 

The morning after any disaster is tough. No doubt lives and property were lost last along the East Coast last night, and my heart goes out to those affected. Those of us who live in hurricane-prone areas understand the stress these events place on families.

That said, for me, the morning after a disaster is hard for another reason. It's tough because I know millions of people woke up this morning to read about how great disasters are for the economy. These claims are made by people who have obviously never heard of Frédéric Bastiat or his
Broken Window Fallacy. If they did, they would know that property destruction never creates wealth. 


Putting Bastiat's example into today's terms, imagine a gutter fell off your house last night costing you $100 to fix. Sure the gutter repairman is happy to take your money, but you are out $100 - and still only have a gutter. You are in the same position as you were before the storm - and $100 poorer. Furthermore, everyone knows you planned to spend that $100 on toys for the holidays (at least your kids hoped you would), but now all you can do is take your children outside to admire your gutter ... the same gutter you had before the storm. You, your family, and the toy stores are worse off.
 

This storm is no different, and the stories in the newspapers were predicable. Countless stories proclaim that recovery spending will offset any economic loss, and that we may even see a "stimulus" as a result of Hurricane Sandy.
 

For example:
 

"...economists played down the likely long-term effects. The recovery after the storm, they said, could actually pump up growth temporarily in a few sectors, like construction and retail sales, when cleanup begins in earnest in a few days."

~ New York Times [Read the Entire Story]
 

"But property damage will be repaired, and lost economic output will largely be offset by other increased activity as residents rushed into stores to prepare for the hurricane."

~ USA Today [Read the Entire Story]
 

"But for the overall economy, damage from the storm will likely be limited. And any economic growth lost to the storm in the short run will likely be restored once reconstruction begins, analysts say. Americans may even spend more before the storm when they stock up on extra food, water and batteries."

~ Fox News/AP [Read the Entire Story]
 

"But 'if there is any silver lining in all the destruction the storm is expected to cause, it's that such storms tend to provide a boost to the economy in their wake.' ... Namely, a surge in employment in construction and skilled trades and a boost in spending as companies and homeowners replace damaged equipment and household items, according to [consultant firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.]"

~ Los Angeles Times [Read the Entire Story]
 

"A lot of the new infrastructure that eventually replaces what Sandy destroys will be 'more modern and productive,' according to economist and business professor Peter Morici of the University of Maryland. ... That minimizes the net impact, he said."

~ The Globe and Mail [Read the Entire Story]
 

"While the storm, which has been given the moniker Frankenstorm, will boost the demand for survival necessities like batteries and water bottles and created jobs in the post-hurricane reconstruction, the effects will be limited. According to Forbes, because Sandy is a one-time event, restricted to a specific geographic location, the storm will not provide economic stimulus for the whole country."

~ Wall Street Cheat Sheet [Read the Entire Story]

Some even took the opportunity to argue for bigger government and play politics...

 

"A Big Storm Requires Big Government"

~ New York Times [Read the Entire Story]

The Bastiat Society believes everyone who works in freedom should know how freedom works. However, given the vast amount of economic ignorance that exists in the world today, we need your help. I encourage each and every one of you to take a moment today to write a letter to your local newspaper editor, post a reference to the
Broken Window Fallacy on your social media site(s), forward this email to your friends and colleagues, or simply correct someone who claims disasters are good for the economy. Do whatever you can to dispel the myth that destruction creates wealth.
 

Stay safe, and I'll see you at a future Bastiat Society event.  
In Liberty,

Brad DeVos - Executive Director
The Bastiat Society

Sunday, October 28, 2012

The Future: Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal

The Future: Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal
Take note, GOP: You might take the presidency and hold the House, but that's only because the country is mired in an economic depression. Considering how bad the economy has been for the last 4 years, the 2012 elections should be a blowout in your favor. But the best you can do is squeak out a victory. That's pathetic. And it goes to show how badly you turn off much of the country with your anachronistic social conservatism.

Today the AP published a story profiling the next generation's political stances. They verified what I've been saying all along: the majority of Americans my age and younger are fiscally conservative and socially liberal, the polar opposite of the Karl Rove-George W. Bush GOP. Hopefully, the GOP is learning that, if it wants to remain a relevant political power in future national elections, it needs to calibrate with younger Americans' politics. That means jettisoning social conservative deadweights such as Richard Mourdock, Todd Akin, and Scott DesJarlais and adopting a platform that incorporates many libertarian ideas. (After all, don't you have to be socially liberal to be fiscally conservative? Doesn't it cost gobs of money to futilely legislate morality?)

In other words, if the GOP had any sense, it would start treating the "Paulbots" with some respect. Because, like it or not, they are the future.