
I'm very pessimistic about 2013:
Mitt Romney has a
good chance of winning the presidency, but even if he doesn't, Republicans will likely have
full control of Congress in 2013. Under Republican control, Congress will pass necessary austerity measures that will put
negative pressure on the economy. The economy will already be weakened by growing
inflationary pressures, and will
fall into recession in Q1 2013 if predicted tax increases and spending cuts are
triggered.
Regarding
the Federal Reserve, whoever is president in 2013 will be stuck with
Ben Bernanke as chairman for the duration of the year. Mr. Bernanke, who
has made it clear that he will try every
Modern Monetary Theory
trick in the book to avoid a second Great Depression, will be unable to
pull the economy out of recession. Bernanke will, however, exacerbate
inflationary pressures, which will be particularly harmful to the poor
and the unemployed, whose government entitlements will be severely cut due to austerity.
So, what do I see in 2013, apart from an official declaration of recession from the
National Bureau of Economic Research?