As you can see in the following chart, the ADS has been on a negative trajectory since 2010 and is currently in recessionary territory.
- weekly initial jobless claims
- monthly payroll employment
- industrial production
- personal income less transfer payments
- manufacturing and trade sales
- quarterly real GDP
Indeed, this second chart, a historical snapshot of ADS covering 50 years, shows that the ADS has never had a clear long-term negative trajectory without the NBER officially declaring recession: (Recessions shaded in gray.)
The ADS is only the latest indicator that suggests to me that we will experience a brief, relatively mild recession beginning in Q1 of next year.