Thursday, November 8, 2012

Imports, Exports, GDP Growth Suggest Q1 Recession

Imports, Exports, GDP Growth Suggest Q1 Recession
Q1 is typically the weakest quarter for GDP growth, and the trendlines of imports, exports, and GDP growth suggest that, regardless of the outcome of the so-called "fiscal cliff" negotiations, the economy will officially slip back into a "mild" recession in January. As I pointed out several months ago, if inflation were calculated as it was until food and energy were deleted from the calculation, we'd currently be back in recession. (In fact, the economy would have only had a brief stimulus-driven reprieve from the deep recession that began in 2007.) Investment guru "Dr. Doom" Marc Faber appears to agree with that premise and has gone on record saying that there is a 100% chance of recession in 2013. The direction of the trendlines is unmistakable, and, as of September, 20 states were already indicating recession. Batten down the hatches. Mass layoffs to come at the start of the new year.

Imports, Exports, GDP Growth Suggest Q1 Recession - chart

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