One is that the eurozone crisis gets worse and becomes a train wreck. The second one is that the fiscal cliff becomes severe in the United States and you have a contraction. The third one is that you might have a hard landing in China, and the fourth one is the risk of conflict in the Middle East. I think that each one of them alone could trigger a global economic downturn because they’re all systemically important, let alone if several of them were to occur at the same time in a virulent way.The one domestic threat Roubini mentioned, the so-called "fiscal cliff, is a federal government budgetary conundrum that can be mitigated if Congress can come to a series of compromises by the end of the year. What can't be mitigated, on the other hand, is the 3 external threats Roubini outlined, the increasing number of states--20 so far--that are indicating recession, and the threat of a confluence of negative economic events (Roubini's "perfect storm").
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Dr. Doom Counts The Reasons For A Bad 2013 Economy
"100% chance" for recession in 2013. Yesterday, Moneynews.com reported that the other "Dr. Doom", Nouriel Roubini, recently outlined to Foreign Policy Magazine the reasons he sees for 2013 shaping up to be a very bad year for the economy: