Thursday, August 16, 2012
Current GDP Growth Merely Due To Population Growth?
It dawned on my today that, at a paltry 1.5%, almost all of the GDP growth we're experiencing could be a function of population growth. I maintain that, if GDP were calculated the way it used to be (with the price of energy and food included in the calculation of inflation), the economy would be officially in recession. But, assuming the economy is growing at 1.5% per annum, and assuming that per capita contribution to GDP has remained constant (which admittedly could be a faulty assumption given that a large percentage of recent population growth has been due to the immigration of uneducated, low-skilled workers), 1.2% annual population growth should equal a 1.2% annual growth of GDP. Thus, the economy is actually growing at 1.5% - 1.2% = .3%.
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