(Click to enlarge charts.)
Not only is the economy "recovering" at a lesser pace than it did during the Great Depression, it's doing so with credit having been expanded to historic lengths. Total debt-to-GDP is currently 60 points higher than it was at its peak during the Great Depression. 60 points. That should scare you. With the Fed pumping an Amazon River of liquidity, Washington spending even more than it did during the New Deal, and consumers buying things they can't afford, the economy is still contracting!
(Click to enlarge chart.)
From the preceding chart, you might come to the conclusion that we're at least moving in the right direction in terms of deleveraging. But remember that 1) federal debt has passed the point where it becomes a drag on an economy and has rocketed past 100% GDP, 2) much of the consumer "deleveraging" has been from write offs and debt transferred to the federal government, 3) consumers are now charging essentials to their credit cards, and 4) the student loan bubble looks like this:
(Click to enlarge chart.)
Notice that the preceding chart only shows student loan debt owned by the federal government. Total student loan debt has surpassed $1 trillion. (Did the Fed not create a chart for this in order to conceal this ugly fact?) Regardless, student debt is the next bubble to burst.
I maintain that the economy is worse than it was during the Great Depression, and the only reason why it doesn't feel that way is because 1) advances in technology and economies of scale have made creature comforts affordable for everyone, 2) food stamps and other government programs have replaced bread lines and work camps, and 3) this country is living well beyond its means.





You're absolutely correct. As a matter of fact, much of the the "prosperty" we've seen since since the Reagan administration has been an illusion due to credit expansion. The charade won't last much longer though. The Fed's last bullet is QE3. After that, it's adios muchachos.
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