Thursday, March 22, 2012

The Green Shoots Of Civil Unrest

Unemployment owns you.  
"Existing But Not Living", S. Jackson and M. Crooks, University of Melbourne

The Green Shoots Of Civil UnrestThe preceding quote is from a research study of the psychological effects of long-term unemployment during the deep Australian recession of the late 80’s and early 90’s. The study concluded that long-term unemployment caused a profound loss of identity in study participants, a loss so severe that some engaged in activities that they normally wouldn’t have: abusing substances, abusing spouses, even killing.

Long-term unemployment is a pestilence that, left unchecked, will eventually tear at a nation’s social fabric. Long-term unemployment was a primary contributor to the French Revolution, the Spanish Civil War, and the overthrow of the Weimar Republic. Last summer, James Carville opined on “Imus in the Morning” that civil unrest in the United States is “imminently possible” unless the unemployment rate falls precipitously. Indeed, the Occupy Wall Street protests and last year's holiday shopping violence are the “green shoots” of the unrest to which Mr. Carville was referring.

The median duration of unemployment currently hovers around 50 weeks. 50 weeks is longer than the median length of unemployment was at its zenith during the Great Depression. 50 weeks is an incredibly long period of time in which depression, fear, and anger can fester. It’s a period of time in which many formerly productive members of society can become carriers of societal ills.

Rates of domestic violence, substance abuse, vandalism and other societal ills have risen to historic highs in tandem with median duration of unemployment. According to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, call volumes at crisis helplines quadrupled from January 2007 to August 2009. Since then, year-over-year call volumes have remained stuck at their record levels.

During WWII the US Army came to the conclusion that soldiers deployed for more than 90 days were potential “psychiatric casualties”. Like war, long-term unemployment, a continuous combat against financial and domestic stressors, sometimes brings people to their breaking points. No study has definitively concluded how much time one needs be unemployed to reach that breaking point. However, a recent study of the mental health implications of long-term unemployment in volatile Greece may provide a glimpse. The study, conducted by the Greek government last year, noted a steep rise in domestic violence and rapes after two years of joblessness. It’s unsettling to note that more than 4 million Americans have been jobless for more than two years.

Many Americans cannot fathom outright civil unrest in this country. But unemployed Americans have a breaking point just like the unemployed French, Spaniards, and Germans had before their coup d'etats. The US has 28 million unemployed, underemployed, and marginally attached workers. Nearly half have been jobless for a year or more. Many have been unemployed for years. Unless the unemployment rate drops precipitously and soon, we may unfortunately see the “green shoots” of civil unrest grow.

1 comment:

  1. Definitely agree there's been growing tension out there. It'll be interesting to see how the Trayvon/Zimmerman affair goes down. The Fed's are definitely concerned. Big Sis admitted a couple of years ago that she's concerned about the long term unemployed and former military. And both the executive and legislative branches of the government have been busy churning out police state mandates. These are interesting times.

    ReplyDelete